Here is a picture from this fall of a flock of cranes getting ready to head south. They came to my attention because of their cacophonous trumpeting. I spent some time today griding it out and counting the birds. Turns out there are well over 600 birds in this one image. 

The other day, I was perusing the status updates of my fellow FaceBookers, when I came across a brief and inelegant status that scoffed at the idea of global warming. This misguided and inarticulate acquaintance (who shall remain nameless) might be excused for her ignorance (or perhaps it really is inexcusable), but she reminds me of a surprisingly large number of other people we know (I can name half a dozen off the top of my head) as well as voices in the national media and the internet who similarly scoff at the idea that the planet is warming.

When I first began to hear about global warming and the depletion of the ozone layer (two completely separate and unrelated issues, by the way), it sounded too much like alarmist worst-case-scenario thinking. It did not seem likely or possible that the entire planet could be warming. This was in the early nineties, and the idea was still too strange, and the issue was not yet ripe enough for our culture as a whole to acknowledge it.

I’ve always had this pet theory that very little of what I supposedly know can be really known for certain. Was there a George Washington? I know because I’ve been told about him by others and by what I’ve read. How can I really know? Now, that doesn’t mean I think there’s some kind of global conspiracy trying to make us all believe in George Washington. But really, how could I know? But I digress.

My point is, how can I really know that global warming is or is not happening? At this point, I think I can rely on reporting from a large diversity of expert sources, and I can rely on my personal observations, and the observations of those I know and trust.

This phenomenon is being studied by many, many agencies and individuals around the world. Some are government sponsored, but others are private, independent agencies such as US Fish and Wildlife, US Geological Survey, NOAA, our good friends here at UAF, other universities around the work, the IPCC, etc. The diversity of sources and the consensus of opinion is pretty convincing.

The old timers here in Alaska tell us that it doesn’t get as cold in the winters as it did fifty years ago. Records reflect fewer days each year of temps of 60 below. There are still spikes, warm and cold, but the general trend is less cold. The trees are growing larger, farther north. I can see this in pictures of Fort Yukon. Sixty and seventy years ago, the spruce tees were short, spindly things there in FYU. Now, they grow much taller and they continue further north. The sea ice is retreating, and the people who live on the northern coast report more difficulty each year hunting, launching boats, etc. Animals drown while swimming the longer distances from the retreating sea ice to land. Most of the glaciers in Alaska are retreating dramatically as documented by photos over the last fifty years. Permafrost is melting on the tundra, causing the many small tundra ponds that rest on top of the permafrost to drain and disappear. Rising sea levels are leading to advanced coastal erosion, displacing whole communities. The list goes on.

I take all of this as evidence, measurable and observable evidence, and conclude that the global climate is indeed changing for the warmer. It makes me crazy that there are those out there that can still think global warming is some kind of lefty myth. A government conspiracy. A person shouldn’t hang on to ideology so tightly that it blinds him to the obvious.

Now then, though climate change is happening, I don’t know that I could state with the same certainty why climate change is happening, or what will happen next. Is it caused by human activity? That is the leading theory, and it makes sense to me. The burning of fossil fuels emits carbon and other “greenhouse” gases that trap the sun’s heat in the atmosphere. Could be. I suppose it is also possible that the earth is following a larger cycle of warming and cooling, and we are experiencing a thousand year warming trend from the last ice age. No one knows.

Whatever the cause, or whatever the final outcome, I just wish everyone would be open minded enough to accept what an overabundance of evidence tells us is actually happening. On what evidence do you base your skepticism? Don’t be a knucklehead. 

This is Rudy. He is Toby's best friend. He is also a dinosaur, though the specific variety of dinosaur he is cannot be precisely determined. He is of the bipedal variety, he has large teeth, and he is orange. I’m not sure if the current best thinking in paleontologic circles has determined that any dinosaurs were really orange, but I doubt the makers of Rudy were dues-paying members of the Paleontological Society.

Rudy comes from the large and ever growing collection of dinosaurs in Jacob’s menagerie. Jacob likes the highly realistic dinosaurs and likes knowing their scientific name. But Rudy is not very realistic looking. He doesn’t have a scientific name. He looks more like a dinosaur Matt Groening would draw. He looks like a doofus. But Toby loves him and carries Rudy around everywhere.

Toby can be loud at times. We have had many lessons about screaming, and shouting, and banging. And Toby really wants to be good, it's just that he can't always help himself. Recently, I heard Toby being exceptionally loud and banging. I strode into the room prepared to correct him when he announced, "It's okay, Daddy. Rudy was being loud, but I told him to be quiet." That Toby. At least he knows. 

When Jacob plays with his flying dinosaurs, Toby knows Rudy is a flying dinosaur too. Even if flying requires a felt cape hand sewn by Mom. When Jacob plays with the swimming dinosaurs or with his sharks and whales, Toby knows Rudy is a swimming dinosaur. Recalling the cutting of moose meat in the kitchen, Toby routinely lays Rudy down on his side and talks of cutting off various parts of him in order to cook him and eat him. Rudy gets shot by fighter jets. Rudy gets buried in sand only to be “discovered” again. Rudy is all things to at least one little boy. Jacob can have his ranks of diplodocus and deinonychus.  Toby has Rudy. Rudy is important to me because he is important to Toby. And Toby is my dearest boy. 

New Year’s Day is one of my favorite holidays. I really like the idea of making a resolution to begin again, to be a new person, to do things differently, to change one’s life. I am a an untiring fan of new beginnings.

Occasions are also important. I fear things would never get done of there were not a specified occasion to do so. Enter Nablopomo. Nablopomo is just a bastardized version of NaNoWriMo, an intention of some fellow fiction writers to set a goal of writing a full novel, at least a draft, in a month. It’s a effort to light a fire under one’s self and get moving. I love that.

And so, though my effort and enthusiasm for this space has flagged a bit, here’s an occasion to renew my effort, and a new beginning in search of enthusiasm for it.